'Like a tornado:' Russia-Ukrainian war to shift ‘the world order’— Cholaszczynski

The future of not just Russia and Ukraine is at stake in the resolution of the war between them, but also the “new world order,” as the war in Ukraine seems to affect larger and larger circles, a geopolitics expert said.

Krystian Cholaszczynski of the Academy of Social and Media Culture (AKSIM) of Torun, Poland, in a lecture at the University of Santo Tomas on Thursday, noted that while the physical war is limited inside Ukraine, many actors, including China, are involved in the conflict in many ways.

He discussed how the resurgence of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Kyrgyzstan president Sadyr Japarov's treatment of Putin at the summit in Samarkand by making him wait before a meeting points to Russia's weakening influence especially in Central Asia, its traditional backyard.

Russia's downfall, according to Cholaszczynski, will clearly lead to the growth of China's power on the continent, which could give way to a new world order.

“Strengthening mainland China with weak Russia and internal problems in Europe is very dangerous for the balance of world powers,” he explained.

Both Russia and China claim to have dominance and influence over their neighboring Central Asian countries, which are all former Soviet Union members (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) — dynamics which could lead to hostilities.

China's significant economic involvement there promotes regional stability and growth, allowing Russia to concentrate more on influencing military and security dynamics.

“For China, weak Russia is good,” Cholaszczynski said.

“It also means that Russia, involved in the Ukrainian situation, means that the United States will focus on Ukraine and China will have empty hands because no one will see what they are doing with other territories,” the Polish professor added.

China may potentially seek help from Russia if it were to engage in military war with Taiwan, a democratic, self-governed island off its coast whose sovereignty China does not acknowledge.

Experts were quick to point out that China would be wise to observe Russia's invasion of Ukraine to gauge the international response before deciding whether or not to begin a military campaign against Taiwan.

“Taiwan is the second bargaining chip on the way to total dominance in Asia,” Cholaszczynski said, indicating how China's aspirations to annex Taiwan would lead to regional dominance, disrupting the order in East Asia and, most importantly, shifting the balance of power in favor of the United States and its allies in the Pacific.

The resulting geopolitical crisis may also ironically aid in the promotion of the Intermarium project in Central Europe, proposed by Polish statesman Józef Piłsudski.

The Intermarium was a geopolitical concept proposed after World War I with the intention of reuniting the territories of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth into a single state.There were numerous versions of the idea, and some of them accounted for the possibility that other bordering states may join.

If implemented, the planned multinational state would have included all landmass between the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic Oceans.

The perceived danger from Russia has been a primary motivation for the establishment of the Intermarium and continues to be so today. Poland, scarred by world wars in the twentieth century and frequent territorial partitions by Germans and Russians in the 18th century, sees a chance to improve the area surrounding it by military and economic measures.

"Such conditions may contribute to the creation of new alliances and coalitions, thus leading to the defragmentation of the NATO and EU," Cholaszczynski explained.

The future

Cholaszczynski said that the continuance of the Russo-Ukrainian War depended mostly on major countries and their long-term interests.

"Of course, the main role here is played by the USA, as Kiev's main military and economic support," he said.

He noted that Poland, which serves as a key logistical base for Ukraine, as well as Great Britain, which vies with Germany and France for the preeminence in Europe, are also playing their cards in the war.

"Of course, the development of the conflict cannot be 100 percent predicted, but its course will largely depend on where the big players have drawn the thin red line, although this line is increasingly dangerously shifted," Cholaszczynski said.